Dateline December 21, 2007, masses of automotive incentive forces have been taken back to the boarders, reduced production is planned. “We will not fight” acclaim Automotive Executives. Analysts are quick to publish reports on a more mature, financially driven industry, using buzz words like “market driven”, "ordered pipelines" and “Value Priced Products”.
But wait this is December.
----------
For those new to how automotive companies plan their calendar year, allow me to illustrate each month – along with the appropriate stock order.
Jan. - Buy
The big picture always begins at the Detroit Auto Show, where Automotive CEO’s from all corners of the globe project the promise of new markets, new segments and new profits. Most (if asked) underestimate first quarter forecasts. Keeping in mind this is Detroit and the month is January, most agree and go home, finding frozen inventories and little revenue.
Feb. - Hold
Ok a little push back from Wall Street on poor January results, no need to over-react its still February. Dealer meeting frenzy time - present confidential plans for a March close out – push new orders now, with the promise of increased incentive spending sometime around (pick a date).
Mar. - Sell
Hoping no CFO will notice, quietly borrow from fourth quarter incentive budgets and launch a March close out blitz, off-set spendings with increased wholesale gains and surprise Wall Street with a stronger than anticipated first quarter result.
Apr. - Buy
Follow January (different auto show / same story)
May - Hold
Follow February
June - Sell
Follow March
July – Buy
Similar to April
Aug. – Hold
Similar to May
Sep. – Sell
Yes it's June again
Oct. – BUY
New model launch.
Nov. – Hold
Short month - no one pays attention.
Dec. – SELL
Ran out of money, talk advertising / first quarter plans.
Ok now you know the secret – you can send me the commissions.
Happy Holidays.
Editor.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Friday, December 7, 2007
A New Deal
Last week, Automotive Stock Analysts down-graded the outlook for Publicly Traded Dealer Stocks (i.e., Auto Nation, Asbury, Group 1) explaining that both the economy and auto sales were going to decline in 2008.
Wall Street analysts were indeed right about short siding Publicly Traded Dealer Stocks (“Publics”), however for the wrong reasons. Sure it’s the economy that fuels the appetite for car sales, but for Publics, sheer sales increases can’t save an overall defunct business model.
If you view Publics in similar way you view (and invest in) large “box” retailers you will find three key differences:
1. Publics can't receive discounts for large stock orders.
2. Publics are restricted to sell only one brand per facility.
3. Publics can't profit from the sale of their new products.
Think about it, Wal Mart can buy 50,000 tubes of tooth paste for one quarter of the cost to your local drug store and then profit off any brand a consumer chooses, all displayed on the same shelf.
In automotive retailing, a dealer who sells five cars a month buys products for the same price as a dealer who sells 100 cars per month. Publics become large by committing to exclusive brand offerings (especially in expensive major markets) and then report significant losses in their new car departments. Sure there are exceptions, but unless everyone drives Toyota, Honda, BMW and Lexus brands the retailing business model will remain seriously flawed.
The only "real" value Publics have is real estate. Steer clear of Publics who pay more rent than mortgage (thus funneling rents to separate LLC’s - more of this at a later time).
The future of automotive retailing does indeed belong to big investors and CEO’s with vision and leadership (common traits of most Publics today). However only those Publics strong enough to lobby changes in franchise laws and distribution policies will prevail. Imagine IKIA sized retail facilities where customers can view products and services in the same way one clicks onto the Internet.
If you must sell Publics, sell because the business model is as out of date as the leaf springs I saw today on the new Hummer H3.
Wall Street analysts were indeed right about short siding Publicly Traded Dealer Stocks (“Publics”), however for the wrong reasons. Sure it’s the economy that fuels the appetite for car sales, but for Publics, sheer sales increases can’t save an overall defunct business model.
If you view Publics in similar way you view (and invest in) large “box” retailers you will find three key differences:
1. Publics can't receive discounts for large stock orders.
2. Publics are restricted to sell only one brand per facility.
3. Publics can't profit from the sale of their new products.
Think about it, Wal Mart can buy 50,000 tubes of tooth paste for one quarter of the cost to your local drug store and then profit off any brand a consumer chooses, all displayed on the same shelf.
In automotive retailing, a dealer who sells five cars a month buys products for the same price as a dealer who sells 100 cars per month. Publics become large by committing to exclusive brand offerings (especially in expensive major markets) and then report significant losses in their new car departments. Sure there are exceptions, but unless everyone drives Toyota, Honda, BMW and Lexus brands the retailing business model will remain seriously flawed.
The only "real" value Publics have is real estate. Steer clear of Publics who pay more rent than mortgage (thus funneling rents to separate LLC’s - more of this at a later time).
The future of automotive retailing does indeed belong to big investors and CEO’s with vision and leadership (common traits of most Publics today). However only those Publics strong enough to lobby changes in franchise laws and distribution policies will prevail. Imagine IKIA sized retail facilities where customers can view products and services in the same way one clicks onto the Internet.
If you must sell Publics, sell because the business model is as out of date as the leaf springs I saw today on the new Hummer H3.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Harvest Time
The earth is shaking; it’s a small rumble but a rumble just the same.Over 77 million adults are getting old fast.
Just like a tsunami, the first wave of boomers (13 million consumers) is turning 60 within the next 2 years and they plan to buy automobiles. And if you think this group loves cars…wait till the largest group of boomers, 23 million born 1960 – 1964, come of age!
Just like the anticipated real estate trend to smaller homes with larger luxuries, the car industry needs to reflect if they are indeed prepared to harvest this market of “last chance” personal indulgence.
A return to personal luxury.
Bill Mitchell best defined personal luxury about the same time boomers were just kids. Overtime boomers grew up with the appreciation that “one earns - what one drives” and aspirational brands such as Cadillac, Lincoln and Chrysler represented the pinnacle of life’s success. Now, 40 years later, it’s reasonable to conclude boomers are seeking the same status and identification in today’s brands—the same way one rediscovers an old friend. But sadly, with few exceptions, no one has responded.
Forget hip-hop, race wins and wheel spinners, personal luxury is not a four door, nor a cross- over vehicle or even a Hemi.
Imagine.. a high performing V8 hybrid. long hood, short deck, riding on a soft, but highly tuned and adaptive chassis, fitted and formed aircraft type seats, highly detailed exteriors and interiors, and an overwhelming use of quality materials (and craftsmanship) not seen since the 1930’s (i.e., triple chromed accents, real wood, leather, brass and stainless steel).
Price? Well it’s not about monthly payments… Don’t forget room for golf clubs, ease of entry and exit, slightly larger read-outs, and a very very cool audio / DVD system - grandchildren need to be impressed in order to keep the cycle moving to the next generation.
Editor: Bill Mitchell's legacy is as forgotten as a Google search for his photo - shame on us.
Just like a tsunami, the first wave of boomers (13 million consumers) is turning 60 within the next 2 years and they plan to buy automobiles. And if you think this group loves cars…wait till the largest group of boomers, 23 million born 1960 – 1964, come of age!
Just like the anticipated real estate trend to smaller homes with larger luxuries, the car industry needs to reflect if they are indeed prepared to harvest this market of “last chance” personal indulgence.
A return to personal luxury.
Bill Mitchell best defined personal luxury about the same time boomers were just kids. Overtime boomers grew up with the appreciation that “one earns - what one drives” and aspirational brands such as Cadillac, Lincoln and Chrysler represented the pinnacle of life’s success. Now, 40 years later, it’s reasonable to conclude boomers are seeking the same status and identification in today’s brands—the same way one rediscovers an old friend. But sadly, with few exceptions, no one has responded.
Forget hip-hop, race wins and wheel spinners, personal luxury is not a four door, nor a cross- over vehicle or even a Hemi.
Imagine.. a high performing V8 hybrid. long hood, short deck, riding on a soft, but highly tuned and adaptive chassis, fitted and formed aircraft type seats, highly detailed exteriors and interiors, and an overwhelming use of quality materials (and craftsmanship) not seen since the 1930’s (i.e., triple chromed accents, real wood, leather, brass and stainless steel).
Price? Well it’s not about monthly payments… Don’t forget room for golf clubs, ease of entry and exit, slightly larger read-outs, and a very very cool audio / DVD system - grandchildren need to be impressed in order to keep the cycle moving to the next generation.
Editor: Bill Mitchell's legacy is as forgotten as a Google search for his photo - shame on us.
Monday, November 19, 2007
A Short Story
In the fall of 1971 shortly after taking the helm of VW, Rudolf Leiding had only one comment to the press, “we have to work first, let us do so, we shall talk later”. Leiding rising from the ranks of apprentice mechanic to Chairman was no youngster.
At 58 years of age Mr. Leidling was faced with a serious crisis, saving VW while air cooled engines were quickly coming to the end. The causes of VW’s problems are similar to today, monetary measures supported by a strong Yen and the need to reach critical mass as a global marketer. By 1972 VW’s monthly sales were cut in half – not even fleet sales can be sited as the cause.
Leiding is quoted as saying:“The immediate problem was not to make money on the American market, (but) to keep that market, to maintain our exceptional US dealer network and to keep our factories busy”*. It was very rare to find Leiding at press events; rather he was known to stand by the factory gates to monitor those arriving late for work. Product model policy (as it was called back then) was his first priority. Leiding cut projects that were soon to be “job one” saying:"It was better to loose a little money right away than loose a lot later on”.
Leiding also cut costs and manufacturing, his big success was defining Audi and VW’s future brand rolls and finding synergies in design and platform sharing that lives on today.
Rudolf Leiding .... from apprentice to Chairman – head hunters didn’t stand a chance.
Editor:
The moral to the story ... When given the opportunity to turn a company around, remember to grab the steering wheel.
* March 1973 – Motor Trend / by Edouard Seidler.
At 58 years of age Mr. Leidling was faced with a serious crisis, saving VW while air cooled engines were quickly coming to the end. The causes of VW’s problems are similar to today, monetary measures supported by a strong Yen and the need to reach critical mass as a global marketer. By 1972 VW’s monthly sales were cut in half – not even fleet sales can be sited as the cause.
Leiding is quoted as saying:“The immediate problem was not to make money on the American market, (but) to keep that market, to maintain our exceptional US dealer network and to keep our factories busy”*. It was very rare to find Leiding at press events; rather he was known to stand by the factory gates to monitor those arriving late for work. Product model policy (as it was called back then) was his first priority. Leiding cut projects that were soon to be “job one” saying:"It was better to loose a little money right away than loose a lot later on”.
Leiding also cut costs and manufacturing, his big success was defining Audi and VW’s future brand rolls and finding synergies in design and platform sharing that lives on today.
Rudolf Leiding .... from apprentice to Chairman – head hunters didn’t stand a chance.
Editor:
The moral to the story ... When given the opportunity to turn a company around, remember to grab the steering wheel.
* March 1973 – Motor Trend / by Edouard Seidler.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Generation Gap
Chrysler, Ford and GM Industry icons - the 1920's, 30's, 40's (WWII efforts), 50's and 60's each decade, each year, US manufacturers created bench marks that ignited trends in industrial design, white goods, colors, moods, spirit and freedom itself.
Suddenly, and without warning, while the Federal Government was mandating such ingenious innovations as 5 MPH bumpers, seat belt interlock systems and air pumps, the 1973 gas crisis hit. Six years later the gas crisis hit again - fast forward 28 years later - the fab three haven't recorded a single hit record and continue to loose altitude in a downward spiral.
Whats wrong?
It's the brands themselves.
Aged and tired names in a new generation of texting, My Space and video games.
Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Dodge, Ford, Lincoln, Mercury are brands where nostalgia sells, but not much of anything else.
The big three must reduce, re-use and re-cycle by getting down to very simple brand communications i.e., "Trucks,Cars & Retro".
Here's how:
GM Trucks (pick-up line/8 Passenger Family mover)
GM Cars (one micro/hybrid car, one mid sized and one full sized).
GM Retro ("nostalgic brand offers" via catalogue for the old timers - one Cadillac, one Chevy, One Pontiac till the boomers die off).
Chrysler and Ford in a similar way. Easier said than done, but you have to start some place.
Please remember to keep the "iconic" logos somewhat smaller, placing greater emphasis on bench mark innovation and world class products, the core of which started it all in the first place.
Editor
(next we can take on CBS, NBC and ABC - prime time dinasours).
Suddenly, and without warning, while the Federal Government was mandating such ingenious innovations as 5 MPH bumpers, seat belt interlock systems and air pumps, the 1973 gas crisis hit. Six years later the gas crisis hit again - fast forward 28 years later - the fab three haven't recorded a single hit record and continue to loose altitude in a downward spiral.
Whats wrong?
It's the brands themselves.
Aged and tired names in a new generation of texting, My Space and video games.
Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Dodge, Ford, Lincoln, Mercury are brands where nostalgia sells, but not much of anything else.
The big three must reduce, re-use and re-cycle by getting down to very simple brand communications i.e., "Trucks,Cars & Retro".
Here's how:
GM Trucks (pick-up line/8 Passenger Family mover)
GM Cars (one micro/hybrid car, one mid sized and one full sized).
GM Retro ("nostalgic brand offers" via catalogue for the old timers - one Cadillac, one Chevy, One Pontiac till the boomers die off).
Chrysler and Ford in a similar way. Easier said than done, but you have to start some place.
Please remember to keep the "iconic" logos somewhat smaller, placing greater emphasis on bench mark innovation and world class products, the core of which started it all in the first place.
Editor
(next we can take on CBS, NBC and ABC - prime time dinasours).
Friday, November 16, 2007
60 Minutes for Ford
Recently the highly regarded (and talented) CEO of Ford Motor Company, Mr. Alan Mulally stated that "Ford may be running out of time" (for a turn-around). At Volvo (Ford's nervous child) the Swedes have an expression... "time makes decisions".
Time marks the very essence in getting things done. Common tasks are governed by this simple resource... have time, no time, out of time, in time, about time.
When last checked Ford has time, at least 60 minutes to each hour, 24 hours per day, 7 days per week, however they choose to consume this resource in a similar way their trucks burn fuel.
Ford can buy time futures by planning car lines that don't resemble re-badged Volvo's (Zzzz), hire outside leaders who are less concerned with personal image, and address the collateral damage of an over populated dealer body (the latter represents the "third rail" of automotive leadership).
Running out of time Mr. Mulally or a perfectly worded preamble of a new corporate strategy called "sell".
Either way God Speed, or a few Timex watches, which ever works best.
Editor
WallStreetAutomotive.blogspot.com
Time marks the very essence in getting things done. Common tasks are governed by this simple resource... have time, no time, out of time, in time, about time.
When last checked Ford has time, at least 60 minutes to each hour, 24 hours per day, 7 days per week, however they choose to consume this resource in a similar way their trucks burn fuel.
Ford can buy time futures by planning car lines that don't resemble re-badged Volvo's (Zzzz), hire outside leaders who are less concerned with personal image, and address the collateral damage of an over populated dealer body (the latter represents the "third rail" of automotive leadership).
Running out of time Mr. Mulally or a perfectly worded preamble of a new corporate strategy called "sell".
Either way God Speed, or a few Timex watches, which ever works best.
Editor
WallStreetAutomotive.blogspot.com
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