Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Muller's Wind Tunnel

(originally aired August 1, 2011)

Saab Vs. A Wind Tunnel

Back in January 2010 - Victor Muller stated he purchased Saab for the price of a wind tunnel. Once the purchase of Saab was completed, Muller proudly stated "Saab didn't need one new customer," meaning, if former Saab owners purchased new Saab's, the new organization could easily sell over 100,000 units.

The first time I heard these comments I was really taken back. Was this Muller's 15 minutes of fame speech? or ... was he indeed serious?

Prior to Saab's death in December 2009, Muller was impressed by the thousands of Saab owners gathering in support of saving Saab. 18 months later Saab owners have made it very clear.. they are not impressed.

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Assembly plants idle since April, Muller’s Saab is rushing to fill 11,000 orders.

Why?

Exception to the already funded China orders... why the rush to build cars people are not buying? It's estimated the US has an 11 month supply of unsold (new) 9-5 Sedans with MSRP's ranging from low $40's to upper $55's. There are thousands of 9-5 brake rotors collecting rust at US ports as well.

The all new 9-5 may have looked great on consolidated balance sheets (at inflated MSRP’s) but the true cost of sale per unit is likely close to $15,000 per copy (and this doesn’t include the cost of advertising per car sold). The consumer (and current Saab owners) have spoken, they don't want a GM based 9-5 sedan.

The same is unfolding with the all new 9-4X, without launch support to attract "conquest buyers" the carline is failing.

Its fair to say Muller worked very hard, doing wrong things, very well.

* Rush to place GM employees in key executive roles during critical start up periods.

* Rush to embrace Koenigsegg's business plan without proper due diligence.

* Rush to the media without a convincing plan for the brand - to the press and general public.

* Rush to jettison Born from Jets (top 6th recalled automotive slogan) and launch a internally defended global marketing campaign "move your mind."

* Rush to pretend to be an environmentally focused brand without products to back it up.

* Rush to build GM based 9-5’s without defining its need and audience.

* Rush to build the multi million dollar Phoenix project (abandoning the award winning Aero X).

* Rush to build GM based 9-4X without defining its real need and audience.

* Rush to build GM based 9-5 Wagon (segment so thin.. US sales are likely less than 50/month).

* Rush to burn cash without managing the rear view mirror (wholesale and revenue plans).

* Rush to build 11,000 cars with no market demand or retail support.

Unfortunately Muller's Saab is just about finished. There is no saving Saab this time around, and I'm not sure if there is anything left of the brand to save any longer.

Hopefully when its all said and done, and the factory is turned into a freight train assembly plant, someone will purchase the Saab logo and start something up again just for fun.

Pity dealers who have inventory, loyal employees, customers needing warranty repairs and Swedish Govt & EIB who were taken by Muller's salesmanship.

Creditably shattered but not defeated, Muller now eyes the wind tunnel.

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